The Woodlands, TX - If you've been watching the economic news,
you've probably noticed that market experts and traders have been
keeping a close eye on the Commerce Department's Personal Spending
and Personal Income reports. Obviously, those reports provide
insight into the health of our economy, but did you know they also
influence home loan rates? That's right, personal spending can
actually influence the interest rates that are available when you
purchase or refinance a home.
Here's why. Even though the government keeps pumping money into
the system, nothing happens until that money is spent or lent - and
passes from one hand to another or one business to another. The
speed at which this money passes between parties is called the
velocity of money.
With the job market still very sluggish, consumers aren't spending
much money these days, and businesses are still reluctant to spend
money to make investments in their business. With the present
velocity at low levels, inflation remains subdued and that's good
for home loan rates. That's because rates are tied to Mortgage
Bonds and inflation is the archenemy of Bonds, so low inflation is
good for Bonds and rates. However, once velocity increases, the
excess money in the system will cause inflation - which is bad for
rates, since even the slightest scent of inflation can cause home
loan rates to worsen.
While we certainly want to see better economic recovery news in the
near future, we have to remember that there's an inverse
relationship between good economic news and Bonds and home loan
rates. Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, which helps Bonds and home loan rates
improve. Strong economic news, on the other hand, normally has the
opposite result.
Currently, home loan rates are at a historically low level, but
that situation won't last forever. That means now is an ideal time
to purchase a home or refinance before the velocity of money - and
rates - change.